While there is still hope for an ESL, Chelsea's sale is expected to reach £3bn, while Manchester United are merely

One of football's first-ever agents, Jon Smith, addresses a wide range of topics in his debut Exclusive Column for caughtoffside, including the rise in club valuations, the possibility of a European Super League and much more.

I recently spoke with a couple of possible inbound Chelsea suitors and the price conversations have shifted to about the £3 billion mark, which is by far the largest sale of a football club anywhere in the world.

Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur, and Liverpool were valued between a billion and a half and £2 billion a year and a half ago (somewhat reduced by the pandemic). Indeed, I believe Spurs rejected a £1.8bn bid because they desired that the club's valuation begin with a number two.

Assume Chelsea sells for £3 billion — at such price, Spurs' value is driven above £2 billion, approaching £2.5 billion. Arsenal must fall into that category. Liverpool must fall into that category. Two years ago, at the onset of the pandemic, West Ham were valued at over £600 million, and I haven't even discussed Newcastle United or Manchester City. However, that must drag West Ham's valuation to roughly £750 million at the present.

Brentford is a very well-run London club with an excellent management staff and a fantastic owner. They have everything going for them, but will anyone pay more than £200 million for Brentford? – If they can keep their Premier League status, which I am confident they will, they have a real conundrum. I could be completely incorrect, but I doubt it.


Then there are the likes of Norwich City and Watford, who are both set to be relegated this season, and you're obviously looking at numbers lower than those participating with Brentford and the like. When considering which clubs could emerge, Luton Town comes to mind, a club that was rather unfashionable a few years ago. However, you might have acquired Luton Town for £30 million at the start of this season; you might get £40 million or £50 million for them today if they make the Premier League, but what if they get promoted? – Will they be worth £200 million? – Not unless they remain for an extended period of time.

Now, if you cross the water and observe the NFL, you'll see that there are billion-dollar franchises like the Oakland Raiders and Green Bay Packers who don't win every game. It is typically a different winner each year, although in the Premier League, you can usually identify two prospective winners from a field of six or seven, while in Spain, the field is much smaller.

 

There was a lot of backlash from some of Europe's top teams when UEFA expanded their Champions League, which led to their creation of what we all know was a terrible Super League (as we all know).

Each team that signed that deal received £300 million, and three or four of those teams have yet to repay that money. Therefore, what occurs next is that UEFA will use the events in Russia and Ukraine to argue that 'we need help defend these Eastern European republics, we need to widen our embrace of them, and we need to expand the Champions League once more'.

There are a number of issues that FIFA president Gianni Infantino, who is in charge of expanding club world football into new countries and new competitions, is going to have to deal with.

 

However, football and its finances are in excellent form, and this debate will dominate sport for the next decade at the senior level. Thus, football is cemented in the public consciousness, which has to be a positive development. The disadvantage is that at lesser levels, significant financial challenges persist, and those supporters want aid in order to support the clubs they adore and care about.

However, while the supporters' voice in all of these talks is very limited, given that some of these decisions are taken at the highest levels of some of the world's largest clubs, when an ESL comes along and they all stand up, it is a mighty loud voice.

This was best demonstrated by the furious complaints of Chelsea and Manchester United fans. Manchester United fans swarmed Old Trafford following news of the Glazer family's involvement in the proposed ESL, and with the club performing so poorly on the field, it's easy to see why the fanbase is so furious.

When it comes to the Red Devils' troubles – both on and off the field – they are certainly on the hunt for a new manager at the moment, and while everyone seems to be talking about Erik ten Hag, I don't believe it is a done deal yet.


Whoever enters, they will almost certainly be required to strip it. This is a three- to four-year reversal of fortunes. This is Newcastle United in a new guise or configuration.

Regrettable, but that is the way things are. Certain players are insufficient, but not Cristiano Ronaldo, who I believe is a natural winner and has been absolutely amazing for them. However, they are undergoing a complete makeover - they are essentially Newcastle United in a new overcoat.


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