Oil is still good for energy stocks
Step back, Big Tech: oil could be the new FAANG.

Energy stocks fell last week on lower oil prices

Energy stocks fell last week on lower oil prices. But so far, crude oil prices are up nearly 20% through 2022, making the sector one of the few bright spots in the market this year. (In fact, FANG oil quote Diamondback Energy (FANG) is up 25%. Two open-end energy sector funds, Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) and iShares U.S. Energy ETFs ( IYE ) each rose more than 45%.

Occidental Petroleum ( OXY ), an energy company backed by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway ( BRKB ), is up nearly 140% this year. That makes it one of the best-performing stocks on the SP 500. (Berkshire currently owns about 20 percent of Occidental, and U.S. federal regulators recently approved a request for a 50 percent stake in Berkshire.)

 

Berkshire is also a major investor in Chevron (CVX), up more than 30% this year and the largest holding in the DOW. And the top 10 stocks on the SP 500 are all in the oil industry, including Hess ( HES ), Exxon Mobi ( XOM ) and ConocoPhillips ( COP ).

On the other hand, the main meta platform of Facebook, Apple ( AAPL ), Amazon ( AMZN ), Netflix ( NFLX ), and Google Owner Alphabet ( GOOGL ) are all significantly smaller. Technology is not the only part of a volatile market. Most major stocks are in the red this year. Meme stocks like AMC ( AMC ), Bed Bath Beyond ( BBBY ), and GameStop ( GME ). Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies also fell. That's why the performance of oil reserves is so special.

Despite the big moves this year, some analysts believe the energy boom is still in its infancy. "Structural headwinds in the oil sector have been around for a long time," said Matt Cole, head of products and investments at Strive Asset Management.

 

Strive has a new US Energy ETF listed below DRLL. The fund is passively managed and tracks the main oil stock indices. Exxon Mobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips have the biggest stakes. Cole isn't worried about the recent drop in energy prices. He said energy companies should start making profits as oil prices rise. A broad meeting of OPEC+ countries on Monday could also boost oil prices. There is speculation that oil producing countries may cut oil production. Cole also isn't worried that the recent drop in oil prices is a sign of falling demand. Price movements can be attributed to a stronger dollar, which typically lowers commodity prices. Recession risks in the US have been somewhat mitigated by a still stable labor market and low inflationary pressures.

In other words, oil prices should be stable. This cannot repeat the collapse of oil prices during the Great Depression/Global Financial Crisis of 2008.

The price of oil must not rise. It needs to be kept relatively high, and the energy companies will benefit greatly,” Cole said.

To that end, analysts are currently projecting Exxon Mobil to generate about $53 billion in annual revenue by 2022. It is double from last year. Chevron's net income is also expected to more than double to $36.2 billion. "Energy stocks remain the top pick because they will continue to generate record sales and profits as long as oil prices remain above $80 a barrel," Louis Navellier, president of Navellier Associates, said in the report. He also noted that the stock trades at very low valuations based on earnings estimates and pays high dividends. Exxon, for example, trades at less than eight times estimated 2022 earnings, which provides a huge discount to the broader market. The SP 500 is valued at about 19 times this year's estimated earnings. Exxon also pays a dividend of about 3.8%, compared to about 3.2% for the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond.

Cole also said investors should take note of Buffett's recent big bets on oil stocks. "Buffet's legacy is to find successful companies and buy them when they are very affordable," he said. "I think that's the case with higher interest rates."

 

Could the new iPhone boost Apple's share? Buffett is also a big fan of Apple. Berkshire owns more than 5.5 percent of the company, making it the iPhone maker's second-largest holder after hedge fund giant Vanguard. Apple shares, like other tech stocks, have fallen this year. However, the stock is down about 10%. The decline is small compared to other FAANGs. Apple also didn't fall like the Dow, SP 500 and Nasdaq.


IBRAHIM Ayodeji

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Comments
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